Why India is an attractive investment destination
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 22,420 crore from the Indian equity market so far this month, owing to high domestic stock valuations, increasing allocations to China, and the rising US dollar as well as Treasury yields. With this sell-off, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have recorded a total outflow of Rs 15,827 crore in 2024 so far. As liquidity tightens, FPI inflows are expected to remain subdued in the short term.
The changes will take effect on March 28, with portfolio adjustments expected before the market closes on March 27.
India and the US are expected to have smooth trade negotiations after US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a productive meeting during Modi's visit to the White House last month, Stephen A Schwarzman, chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of one of the world's largest alternative investment firms, Blackstone Group, said in Mumbai on Wednesday.
The crisis may not be as visible this time, but the stakes are just as high, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
The number of dematerialised (demat) accounts required to hold shares and other securities in electronic format rose by 3.1 million in April, bringing the total tally to a fresh record of 154.5 million. Since December last year, the new additions have consistently remained above the 3 trillion mark, a sign that the stock markets continue to attract new investors despite a spike in volatility.
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) declined after the information technology (IT) major reported a 1.3 per cent sequential drop in net profit for the March quarter, prompting several brokerages to cut their target prices. The TCS stock fell as much as 1.26 per cent during the day to Rs 3,205 per share.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
Quarterly earnings of corporates, trading activity of foreign investors and inflation data are the key factors that are expected to drive the momentum in the equity markets this week, analysts said.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
The upcoming general elections will be the focus and the economy and market performance will pivot around that event. The general consensus is that the India stock market should be up around 10 per cent by the end of the year.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, Adani Ports and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. JSW Steel emerged as the only gainer.
The Nifty Index features 50 of the largest companies in the country and represents close to 50 per cent of total market capitalisation. It is now trading at valuations that could only be justified if India Inc grows earnings at better than thrice the GDP growth rate. This is extremely unlikely, says Devangshu Datta.
Donald Trump's tariffs, meant as political punishment, have avoided the predicted chaos, lifting US growth, weakening rivals, and letting him claim victory in a resilient global economy, observes T T Ram Mohan.
India and the US desire to give preferential market access to each other's businesses and teams of both the countries are working together on the proposed bilateral trade agreement, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said. In February, US President Donald J Trump and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi announced plans to negotiate the first tranche or phase of a mutually beneficial, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall (September-October) of 2025.
The challenge isn't in selling -- it's easy to sell when the market peaks. The real challenge is in buying back.
Maruti, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, HDFC Bank, and NTPC were among the other major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma were the laggards.
Higher growth, reform bets have boosted returns but leave limited room for error.
'We have relatively strong growth and a healthy corporate earnings cycle as positives, but a worrisome current account deficit and high inflation as challenges.'
The broader markets ended firm with mid-caps and small-caps gaining over 1 per cent on the BSE.
Foreign investors have continued selling in the Indian market, pulling out a massive Rs 85,790 crore (around $10.2 billion) from equities this month due to Chinese stimulus measures, attractive stock valuations, and the elevated pricing of domestic equities. October is turning into the worst-ever month in terms of foreign fund outflows. In March 2020, FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
There are overvaluation and excesses in many pockets of the market. This is most obvious in the IPO market, where loss-making companies have inflicted large losses on investors, observes Debashis Basu.
From the Sensex shares, IndusInd Bank jumped 7.12 per cent. Axis Bank, Adani Ports, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India and ITC were also among the gainers. Maruti, Infosys, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards.
Largecap, flexicap, and balanced advantage funds together recorded a net inflow of Rs 9,363 crore in August, representing a 70% increase from the previous month's total.
Trading volumes for the equities cash segment remained soft, even as the benchmark indices rallied nearly 9 per cent in July. Meanwhile, volumes in the futures and options (F&O) market dipped marginally, but continued to hover at record levels. In July, the average daily turnover (ADTV) for the cash segment was Rs 46,602 crore, up 4.5 per cent month-on-month (MoM), but 26 per cent lower than the preceding 12-month average.
If a 5% to 10% fall in the equity market gives you sleepless nights, you are not cut out for a 75% to 80% allocation to equities and must reduce it.
Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Maruti, Tata Motors, ITC, Tata Steel and Reliance Industries were also among the gainers. Nestle, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Power Grid and Titan were among the laggards.
It's the beginning of a rate reduction cycle
'Regardless of whether you invest Rs 100 or Rs 1 crore per month, risk is inevitable.' 'Positive returns at the end of the year can never be guaranteed.' 'This is a fundamental truth every SIP investor must grasp.'
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Milind Vadjikar your insurance, stocks, mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
'Unless we consistently show up with the right cars, at the right time, priced fairly, we risk becoming irrelevant very quickly.'
Stock markets will be guided by global factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the COVID-19 situation in China and crude oil prices in absence of major domestic events this week, analysts said. Stock markets are expected to keep their winning momentum this week as FIIs may come back aggressively fuelling a further rally in the market, they added. "In absence of any major event, global cues viz the Russia-Ukraine war, the COVID situation in China and movement of crude will remain in focus. "Besides, participants will be also be eyeing FIIs flow for cues," said Ajit Mishra, VP Research, Religare Broking.
IT stocks on Wednesday rose as much as 3 per cent in an otherwise weak stock market after sentiments turned buoyant amid the rupee sinking to an all-time low of 60.35 against the dollar, as the stronger US currency boosts the sales of software firms in rupee terms.
Sensex remained volatile through the day.
India's top listed real estate developers reported steady growth in Q4FY25, supported by healthy pre-sales, even as earnings reflected signs of moderation amid elevated housing prices and subdued launches.
Investors' wealth jumped Rs 13.78 lakh crore on Monday as the benchmark equity index Sensex hit its lifetime high after exit polls predicted a massive win for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha polls. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 2,777.58 points or 3.75 per cent to hit a record peak of 76,738.89 in early trade. The benchmark finally ended at 76,468.78, registering a sharp rally of 2,507.47 points or 3.39 per cent.
Nestle surged 4.25 per cent after the FMCG major reported 4.94 per cent increase in net profit at Rs 688.01 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2024. IndusInd Bank, Titan, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, ITC and Maruti were the other major gainers. ITC Hotels, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance and ICICI Bank were among the laggards.
With the recent launch of smartwatches, home-grown smartphone maker Lava is looking to secure a strong foothold in the Indian wearables market. The company aims to capture up to 20 per cent of this segment over the next few years, according to a senior executive.
Bharti Airtel was the top loser in the Sensex pack, falling over 3 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, PowerGrid, SBI, HDFC Bank and Sun Pharma. HCL Tech was the top gainer, rallying around 10 per cent. TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra and Titan too ended with up to 5 per cent gains.
